By Alex Breitler
STOCKTON - There they were Friday, three little words in next week’s weather forecast: “Chance of rain.”
Stockton should be nearing the end of a historic dry spell that blessed us with short-sleeve afternoons, but also mucked up air quality, killed grass needed to sustain cattle and compelled farmers to ask for unprecedented water deliveries in the middle of what should be the wettest month of the year.
Today marks 30 days since measurable rain fell in the city. When the streak ends - next Thursday, if current forecasts prove true - it will be the second-longest dry spell on record during a rainy season, falling short only to a 41-day mini-drought in December 1962 and January 1963.
WHAT IT MEANSThe 30-day dry streak has been felt across the San Joaquin Valley and Sierra Nevada:
• The lack of storms created a toxic brew of air pollution, triggering repeated bans on fireplace burning from Stockton to Bakersfield. Conditions may improve if rain materializes Thursday and Friday.
• Rural water districts are making rare January deliveries of water to farmers.
• There is still, however, lots of water in reservoirs from last winter. So there should be enough to get through this year.
• Rangeland is dry, causing problems for ranchers.
• Ski resorts are closed or only partially open. Mountain passes remain open, even Tioga Pass in Yosemite National Park, which has never been open past Jan. 1.
• The state has prohibited outdoor burning in Calaveras and eastern San Joaquin counties due to high fire danger.
• Unusually warm daytime temperatures in the 60s will likely drop into the 50s with arrival of rain. And unusually cold nighttime temperatures in the 20s and 30s may climb into the 40s.
With a pathetic 1.63 inches of rain since July, Stockton is behind the pace of even the driest year on record, 1975-76.
But we’ve been bailed out before.
“We’re just looking at the sky, hoping,” said 64-year-old Darrel Sweet, a fifth-generation cattle rancher near the Altamont Pass.
“It’s unbelievably dry,” Sweet said Friday, standing on a bronze hillside with only the slightest hint of green undergrowth remaining from storms last October. “If it rains soon, this’ll all come back. But it’ll take more than one storm.”
That’s what everyone is hoping for - from the bare Sierra Nevada ski resorts to the parched San Joaquin Valley farms.
In an effort to draw customers - even though it’s not fully open - Bear Valley Ski Resort is hosting a “beach party” this holiday weekend with horseshoe tournaments, volleyball and an outdoor barbecue. Guided hikes have been added to a list of midwinter recreational opportunities.
Lower down, the South San Joaquin Irrigation District on Sunday will start shipping water to farms around Manteca, Ripon and Escalon, amidst concern that orchard trees may be in danger.
“We’ve got soil moisture probes in the ground, and 30 to 40 inches down there is zero moisture content in the soil,” said Jeff Shields, the district’s general manager. “These root structures, the trees and grapes - let alone the shallow crops - they’re just not getting anything.”
Almond trees, especially, need water as they begin to awaken from winter dormancy, Shields said.
The last time South San Joaquin delivered water during the winter was late January 1990, he said. The risk is that deliveries next summer might be cut off earlier than normal, if winter can’t get its act together.
There is reason to believe that it might.
The cold-water La Niña phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean usually means wet in the Pacific Northwest and dry in the Southwest. Stockton, somewhere in the middle, can go either way.
To date, storms have passed far to the north. But now the jet stream is shifting in our direction.
While it’s too soon to know how long it will linger - the National Weather Service says it can’t predict how much rain will fall next week, let alone next month - the federal Climate Prediction Center expects above normal rain and snow for at least the next two weeks.
And consider this: While the wet season is off to a historically dry start, similar conditions were seen in 1958-59, 1980-81, 1986-87 and 1990-91. Each time, the months of January, February or March provided the needed burst of precipitation to avoid a record-setting dry year.
Sweet, the cattle rancher, climbed into his truck Friday and drove to a hilltop where a couple dozen black Angus cows milled around a container filled with 2,000 pounds of dark molasses-based liquid, laced with vitamins and minerals. The cows will need this additional nutrition; there is no new growth for them to eat on the range.
Luckily for Sweet, last year was so wet that there is still some leftover grass on his land, sticking up like dry spaghetti. Other ranchers have had to buy feed from out of state, paying high prices. And they worry about water for their cattle, too, with creeks running dry.
Some have talked about shipping livestock out of state until conditions improve. San Joaquin County Supervisor Leroy Ornellas, in fact, raised the possibility this week of seeking a disaster declaration to help those landowners.
Good times come and go, as Sweet knows, having grown up listening to his grandmother talk about the terrible “winter” of 1924, when cattle had to be killed on the spot because they were starving to death for lack of feed.
“Right now, it looks like a drought to me,” he said. “But if the rains come, recovery is definitely possible.”
Contact reporter Alex Breitler at (209) 546-8295 or abreitler@recordnet.com.
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